National Weather Center update on Tropical Storm Elsa 2 p.m. UPDATE

Posted 7/5/21

The National Weather Center issued the following update on Tropical Storm Elsa at 11 a.m. on July 5:

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National Weather Center update on Tropical Storm Elsa 2 p.m. UPDATE

Posted

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
• The Cuban provinces of Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spiritus, Cienfuegos, Matanzas, Villa Clara, Mayabeque, Havana, and Artemisa,
• The Florida Keys from Craig Key westward to the Dry Tortugas,
• West coast of Florida from Flamingo northward to Suwannee River.

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
• West coast of Florida from Bonita Beach to the Ochlockonee River

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
• The Florida Keys from east of Craig Key to Ocean Reef,
• Florida Bay,
• North of the Suwannee River to Indian Pass, Florida.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area.

Interests in coastal Georgia and the Carolinas should monitor the progress of Elsa. Additional watches and warnings will likely be required later today.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.

At 2 p.m. EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was located near latitude 22.2 North, longitude 81.6 West. Elsa is
moving toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue today, followed by a turn toward the north-northwest on Tuesday and a turn toward the north on Tuesday night. On the forecast track, Elsa is expected to continue to move over west-central Cuba for the next several hours, move into the
Florida Straits this evening, and pass near the Florida Keys early Tuesday. Elsa is then forecast to move near or over portions of the west coast of Florida on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional weakening is expected while the center moves over land. Some restrengthening is forecast after Elsa moves over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of central and western Cuba today. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in the Florida Keys tonight and along the Florida west coast beginning Tuesday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the upper Florida Keys by tonight. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Florida Big Bend area beginning Tuesday night.

The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

• Bonita Beach to Ochlockonee River including Tampa Bay...2 to 4 feet
• Flamingo to Bonita Beach...1 to 3 feet
• Ocean Reef, FL to Dry Tortugas including Florida Bay...1 to 2 feet
• Ochlockonee River to Indian Pass...1 to 2 feet

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

Rainfall from Elsa will impact portions of the Florida Keys, the Florida Peninsula and the coastal Southeast this week. Amounts of 2
to 4 inches with localized maximum amounts up to 6 inches are expected across Florida and coastal Georgia through Wednesday, which may result in isolated flash, urban, and minor river flooding.

Coastal portions of South Carolina and North Carolina are expected to receive 1 to 3 inches of rain, with local maximum amounts up to 5 inches Wednesday into Thursday, which could lead to isolated flash and urban flooding.

A few tornadoes are possible across south Florida tonight and across the Florida Peninsula on Tuesday.

Swells generated by Elsa will spread westward along the southern coast of Cuba today. Swells will increase near the Florida Keys and south Florida later today and spread northward along the west coast of Florida tonight through Tuesday night.

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